Editor's note: The following is an edited transcript of a live chat event with Robert Seidman, author of the influential online newsletter, "Online Insider".
Host albion_fm:
Hi everyone!
Welcome all! We'll be starting in a few minutes.
This is a facilitated chat which means we'll be using two chat rooms simultaneously.
In this room, you will see Robert Seidman talking and answering your questions and you will be designated as a spectator.
You can ask Robert questions in the Ask Questions
Here chat room, which works like a regular chat room. We'll then
copy your questions into the main chat room for Robert to answer.
OK ...
Hi everyone! Welcome to our "Online Insider"
chat with Robert Seidman! Thank you for joining us this evening.
My name is Seth Ross and I'm your host for this chat.
Tonight our guest is Robert Seidman, author of the
influential newsletter, "Online Insider."
"Online Insider", formerly known as "In,
Around & Online", is a weekly publication distributed
via Internet email and on the World Wide Web. Each issue contains
Robert's pointed observations about the online world in general
and about the online business in particular.
You can find back issues of "Online Insider"
here on MSN - use the Go word "SeidmanBBS" to go to
a BBS that contains recent issues, or use the Go word "SeidmanWWW"
to jump to the "Online Insider" web page.
If you like what you see, go ahead and subscribe
via email, the preferred method of distribution.
OK. Let's get started. Robert, I want to thank you
for agreeing to be our guest tonight. Is there anything you'd
like to say by way of introduction?
robert_seidman:
Just thanks to everyone for coming and special thanks to Albion for having me here!
These are exciting times in the online/Internet World!
Host albion_fm:
OK
First question ...
From Rollerskate ...
Rollerskate:
Robert, I've been reading your 'zine since forever.
Can you talk a bit about the "numbers game" that the
online services play - and how we make sense out of the statistics?
robert_seidman:
Hi Rollerskate -- always good to see a long time
reader!
I think that in some ways the numbers game gets overplayed
especially with AOL and CompuServe, since both of them have some
strange counting practices. AOL for example, counts its trial
subscribers in the first month. CompuServe counts almost a million
customers on NiftyServe, an online service in Japan that CompuServe
receives royalties on. Fortunately, AOL is a public company,
and CompuServe as a part of H&R Block (at least until the
spin off) reports earnings and revenues. For AOL, the trend is
up and even if they count trial subscribers (they maintain they
have since day 1) the trend is still good. CompuServe on the
otherhand, isn't looking as good...their margins have been cut
quite a bit since they reduced their rates to compete...they are
also spending a lot of money on research and development...but
it's the revenue numbers that matter more...so we can use CompuServe
and AOL to gauge what the real situation is...and the subscriber
numbers and revenue are up (tremendously!) for both.
Host albion_fm:
Next question, from Maggie ....
MaggieBuckwitz:
did AOL and Netscape merge while you were away??
robert_seidman:
Heh heh...if they did, they kept it under very tight
wraps...and they have not taken the wraps off yet. I expect we'll
see some sort of license arrangement in the near future though.
Host albion_fm:
Great.
Next question ...
bbdemo4:
Hello Robert: I first started reading your stuph when I went to work for MSN; I liked it so much, I subscribed from home. My question is, what do you think the future is for Independant Service Providers?
Do You think they'll be squeezed outta business?
robert_seidman:
Great question...
I think that as long as growth remains explosive,
even the little guys can win...for a while...as bigger companies,
like the phone companies get into the business and start offering
very inexpensive, if not free, access, it will become tougher
on the little guy. Right now, with some of the offerings, from
Netcom, AOL (via GNN) and CompuServe's SPRYNET...(which has all
you can eat access for $19.95 a month) it is going to be tough
for the smaller companies to compete as the growth rate flattens
out.
Host albion_fm:
Great.
Next question ...
bbdemo4:
Robert; as I understand it, you work for a company
that lets you spend some of their time working on your newsletter.
Why? What's in it for them?
robert_seidman:
It's a fair question...so I'll answer honestly...one, I learn a lot of things as a result of the newsletter writing...
I work on a project that is developing a business
to business information service that will utilize the internet
(you can check it out at http://www.infosage.ibm.com)...so, my
background knowledge of all the services has been helpful in trying
to define our product...plus, I have a link to the service from
my Web page and occasionally put in a small plug in the newsletter...They
seem to be happy with the arrangement so far!
Host albion_fm:
OK next question, from newbie_FM ...
Host newbie_FM:
Robert: Do you have any predictions/guesses about
the future of MSN?
robert_seidman:
I'm still trying to research this one...the biggest question I have regards the proprietary MSN which we're using for this chat vs. the Web based MSN that Microsoft seems to be moving toward. It still isn't 100% clear to me that they (Microsoft) are abandoning the proprietary platform…but with each passing day, it sort of seems like that they are indeed planning to ultimately abandon the platform. Example:
they pulled the plug on releasing the Internet Studio
(the software formerly known as Blackbird) because they wanted
to release a version that utilized the open standards of the Internet...if
I were a content provider on MSN, this would have made me unhappy.
It is not yet clear (at least to me...) whether the Internet
Studio that will be released in the future will have any special
tools for the proprietary service. I hope to have a definitive
answer on this soon. Keep your eye on the newsletter.
Host albion_fm:
Before we get to the next question, I'd like to say
that Robert's InfoSage service is wicked cool. He gave me a quick
demo before the chat. Check out that URL.
Next question ...
MaggieBuckwitz:
Which services besides AOL allow multiple screen
names on one account. I know MSN doesn't but wish it would.
robert_seidman:
Prodigy allows multiple screen names...no other service
comes to mind that allows multiple screen names. If I missed
one, I'll forward the info to Albion.
Host albion_fm:
bbdemo4:
Robert; you said you thought that "even the
little guys can win... for a while" I think 18 months is
about it. When do you see the "end of the road" for
the ISPs?
robert_seidman:
Hmmmm...good question...it depends on how much of
the 80% or so of the world that ISN'T connected gets on...and
how fast they decide to connect. I think within the 18 mo. timeframe,
we will see some of the shakeout you predict.
Host albion_fm:
Rollerskate:
Robert, what do you think of Oracle's product announcement
(the Internet financial processing back-end)? Who are their competitors
in this area?
robert_seidman:
The hardware area isn't one I follow a great deal...ooops...hardware
and software for backend systems, I should say...I think Oracle
wants to be the premier backend processor, especially for transactions...for
things on the Web...I think they'll go after providing packaged
solutions..so the competition is probably IBM, Microsoft, and
standard players in the solution industry. That's about the best
I can do with that question for now.
Host albion_fm:
bbdemo4:
Robert; you do appear to know a lot... Your writing
style is very engaging and readable. I think you're and xlnt
source for news. How'd you get started doing this?
robert_seidman:
Thanks for the kind words...I worked for a company
that had developed some news filtering technology...this is going
back to 1993...I wanted to test our software, so I wrote a query
on the online services and Internet industry to provide me with
news and information about that area…over time, I saw the
number of stories go from about 25-50 per week to 250-500 per
week...because the area was so active, it was hard to keep up
with and I had the thought that it would sure be nice if someone
read all this and summarized the good stuff for me...
Host albion_fm:
cold-ones:
Robert, Have you read Bill Gates book, "The
Road Ahead?" If so do you agree with his assessment of the
future of online informational services?
robert_seidman:
Since I had the information, I decided to try it
myself...initially, the newsletter was very focused towards abstracting
every thing that went on...since that time, a lot of "bigger"
sources have begun distributing that sort of info so I've migrated
to more analysis.
As for Bill Gates...
Host albion_fm:
Sorry about jumping the gun. cold-ones asked about
"The Road Ahead".
robert_seidman:
I haven't read the book yet, but I have seen several
interviews with Gates discussing the issues in the book....I agree
with Gates' predictions for the future...the question to me is
one of when and not one of "if".
Host albion_fm:
bbdemo4:
Robert; where do you get your favorite access to
the internet from? A local provider? MSN? AOL? What do you
use most?
robert_seidman:
For Internet connection, I mostly go between Cloud9
(which is a local ISP in NY), IBM's Internet Connection, and yes,
even MSN! I access AOL, CompuServe and Interchange, from my Internet
connections and don't usually connect directly to them. Currently,
I can't access Prodigy in that fashion, and as a result, I don't
get on Prodigy as much as the others.
Host albion_fm:
rich_augelli:
What kind of Web applications do you see developing
within the next few years and what kind of platforms do you think
will be dominant?
robert_seidman:
Sometimes I think we've put the cart before the horse...I
think the important questions to ask are: what kind of services
do people want and how do they want them... About the only thing
we know for sure (at least in my mind) is that people want free
services. I think Microsoft and Netscape will indeed slug it
out...and even with Java in the Internet Explorer...for now, Netscape
is ahead because of all the "plug in" application development
which enhances the browsing experience...One difficulty in predicting
is that the technology moves so fast...as a result, the state-of-the-art
applications seem to run towards the high-end hardware and software...Today,
there's a lot of talk of Java, but the fact is, MOST people don't
have a system that will allow a Java enabled browser. (short
answer...I don't think anyone really knows...) But I think, at
least for now, the most successful services will be the ones that
cater to the computer users...however, there is probably a lot
of money to be made in the niche and business markets...What the
demand is, say, for services that employ VRML (virtual reality
markup language) is not clear. Today, it doesn't seem like there
is a lot of demand...but as hardware, software and bandwidth issues
improve, I think a lot of focus will be given to VRML. That could
still be several, if not many, years away from the average user.
Host albion_fm:
bbdemo4:
Robert: what are your favorite sources of "Online"
related information? What newsletters, ezines, email lists and/or
other sources do you use and like?
robert_seidman:
At this point, I can honestly say that most of my
information comes either from the infoSage product I mentioned
earlier (which culls newswires and publications)...or directly
via e-mail.....But for general sources, I'm big on things like
EduPage, Newsbytes, the Cowles/SIMBA Media Daily and traditional
pubs like PC Week, Communications Week and then Web sites like
c|net.
Host albion_fm:
GDALE:
with all the commercial sevices being offered on
the net..will the day come that access is "free", paid
for thru ad/service fees..if you think so,,when..if not ..why
robert_seidman:
I think it's very possible that access will become
free in the not to distant future...I'm currently analyzing the
"disaggregation" of content from access and hope to
have a piece on that in the newsletter soon...I think access is
already a low margin commodity business and it isn't unthinkable
that companies like MCI will give away some access if you use
their long distance service. I think we will see some (but probably
not unlimited) free access services this year.
Host albion_fm:
Free access will be a cool thing. Hopping right along,
here's the next question ...
MSNPAULY1327:
Robert,Do you think my 486 will keep up with the
internet or will I have to spend another $2,000 soon?
robert_seidman:
I think it depends on what you want to do. If you
want to do e-mail and basic web browsing, FTP, read the newsgroups...it
will be fine. For intensive multimedia applications...if you
want to see them, sooner or later, you'll probably be forced to
spring for the new system...or develop a lot of patience!
Host albion_fm:
rich_augelli:
In his book The Road Ahead Bill Gates sees the Info
Highway as an offspring of today's Internet. Do you agree?
robert_seidman:
Yes. There is some infrastructure already in place
to distribute information between millions of people. The vision
for the ISH is really a more integrated, higher bandwidth version
of the same thing we already have (with all the cool things high
bandwidth will allow for)...it will also have a lot more people
connected. Once everyone is connected, the possibilities that
brings are quite amazing (though some are scary, too!)
Host albion_fm:
rich_augelli:
Robert, I've never heard of your newsletter, what's
the circulation and where can I buy a copy to check it out? What
are the main areas of coverage? You can find back issues in the
Doors of Cyberspace ...Go word "doors" on MSN. Each
issue has subscription info.
robert_seidman:
Rich...it's okay, my newsletter is only distributed
electronically and it's not a mainstream publication. It covers
issues -- more geared towards the business end of the online/Internet
world...So, we talk about things like "why web 'hits' are
lousy indicators" how many people are using the web...who
is making money and losing money...what are some cool new products...with
a lot of emphasis on the news that happened during the previous
week...the newsletter is distributed weekly at no charge...you
can receive directly via e-mail, the Web or from services like
Albion.
Host albion_fm:
Rollerskate has asked about Prodigy a couple of times
...
Rollerskate:
What do you see happening with P* - will anyone buy
it (and if so, why)?
robert_seidman:
As an IBM employee, this is one of those things I
try to keep my head in the sand about...I am not sure how much
they (Sears) is trying to sell their stake for...I think someone
will buy their stake if the price is right...as for who...Sears
stated the reasons they are pulling out is that Prodigy doesn't
really fit into their core business strengths. Also in question
(and I don't know the answer...) is what IBM will do with their
stake..It seems to me, that if IBM stays in, they should find
a partner that makes sense...maybe a big media conglomerate with
a lot of content..something like that. But that's just my opinion.
Host albion_fm:
We only have several minutes left. This is your chance
to get a final question or two in. cold-ones has a good one ...
cold-ones:
Robert, do you see a particular browser program emerging
as the industry standard. I know one is almost there now. But
what about standardization?
robert_seidman:
Well, clearly Netscape wants to be the Industry standard
for browsing...and theyve made amazing strides..They have one
big problem.
Microsoft.
I'm not trying to be funny either...it will be interesting
to watch Microsoft and Netscape vie for the standard browser...it
seems like it has boiled down to these two for now...but, someone
could develop a new technology that makes the Web seem like yesterday's
news...for now though, the browser fight between Microsoft and
Netscape is one of the bigger stories in the Internet arena.
Host albion_fm:
This has been a lot of fun. We only have time for
a couple more questions ...
Rollerskate:
Robert, what do you see as today's online service's
biggest challenge?
robert_seidman:
If you mean the commercial online services like AOL,
I think there biggest challenges involved shifting quickly (like
adapting hooks to the net) to embrace all the new technology
developed for the Net. I think if they can sustain growth, they'll
be able to reduce rates and still make money...if not, they're
in for trouble. So, coming up with a model for providing good
info, and access that allows them to compete with marketing powerhouses
is a big challenge. So far, AOL at least, has done a good job.
We'll have to see what happens say, 2 years from now.
Host albion_fm:
Bryan_C:
Robert, it seems like you've gone from reporting
online news when you first started writing your newsletter to
now offering more of an analysis of the news. Do you feel you've
made this transition and if so why?
robert_seidman:
Bryan, you're absolutely right.
And there are a couple of reasons for it...
As the newsletter grew, insiders (people like Steve
Case and Russ Siegelman) would actually answer my questions, so
I could expand a little more on stories and ask the questions
I wanted to ask...keeping in mind that they don't always answer...But
I moved to analysis because when there are free news services
offered from Pathfinder, c|net, CMP Publications, ZD Net, SIMBA,
etc...I didn't think there was any reason to continue to do that
sort of a newsletter...I think I have something different to offer
with my analysis that is still valuable. At least that's my hope!
Host albion_fm:
Thank you, Robert, for taking the time to chat with
us. We'd love to have you back again.
Thank you one and all for joining us this evening.
This was our first Doors of Cyberspace event - I invite you all
to return again as we develop and deliver more provocative programming
- go word "doors".
I'd also like to invite you to check out the other
Albion services on MSN - go word "albion". You can find
us on the WWW at http://www.albion.com/welcome/albion
We'll be having a Newbie Chat with Michael Lehman
next Thursday 2/29 at 6 PM Pacific, 9 PM Eastern. This is a great
chance to get your MSN questions answered - Michael is the author
of _The Newbie's Guide to The Microsoft Network_.
For more info, go "newbie".
robert_seidman:
Thanks for having me and thanks for all of the great
questions!
Host albion_fm:
You can find back issues of "Online Insider"
here on MSN - use the Go word "SeidmanBBS" to go to
a BBS that contains recent issues, or use the Go word "SeidmanWWW"
to jump to the "Online Insider" web page.
One last question ...
crchrdsn:
what is your favorite online service of the big 4
robert_seidman:
I always hate this question...I like certain things on all of the services (this isn't just lip service...) For example, on MSN, I really like some of the news coverage and what they've done with the Encarta and Bookshelf applications...Similar things could be said for Prodigy and CompuServe (I like Newsweek Interactive on Prodigy a great deal) and I like a couple of the forums only available to CompuServe...
but I think all around, AOL is the best of the 4.
Host albion_fm:
If any of you would like to check out Robert's project
at IBM, the URL is: http://www.infosage.ibm.com. While we're plugging,
you can also find Albion at http://www.albion.com/
Thanks again Robert. It's been a blast.
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